Autumn arrives not only with cold weather, rain, and earlier sunsets. Along with the shortening of daylight, our habitual rhythm of life also changes – there is less natural light, sleep-wake patterns shift, time spent outdoors decreases, and for some people, even their usual social activity declines. For most, these changes remain barely noticeable. But for a segment of the population, autumn becomes a period of pronounced fatigue, low mood, irritability, apathy, and the feeling that everyday tasks require significantly more effort.

Why does one person continue living at their normal pace, while another already feels by October that it is difficult to force themselves to leave the house, work, socialize, and handle routine matters? And can such a shift in psycho-emotional state affect not only well-being but also behavior?

For criminal psychology, this question is particularly intriguing. After all, unlawful behavior rarely arises out of nowhere. Between the external situation and the act itself lies a complex system of psychological mechanisms – a person's emotional state, their capacity for impulse control, their stress response patterns, their level of aggressiveness, and their ability to assess the consequences of their actions.

It is important, however, to draw a clear line from the outset: autumn in itself does not make a person aggressive or criminal. Yet seasonal changes can affect the body and mind, and for individuals with certain vulnerabilities, they may become one of the factors that alter emotional regulation and the ability to cope with stress.

In everyday speech, we often refer to the autumn downturn in mood as "the blues." But there is a fundamental difference between a routine dip in spirits and a clinically significant condition.

Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) is a form of mood disorder in which episodes occur at specific times of the year and then subside or disappear. The most common variant begins in autumn or winter. It is characterized not merely by a few days of low mood, but by a persistent cluster of changes affecting emotional state, sleep, energy, motivation, and daily functioning.

One of the key factors considered in explaining seasonal changes is the reduction in daylight hours. Light is a primary signal for the body's circadian system – the internal biological rhythms that regulate, among other things, the sleep-wake cycle. Changes in light exposure can influence these processes and the associated neurobiological mechanisms.

A person may start sleeping more, or conversely, experience sleep disturbances, feel constant fatigue, lose interest in previously enjoyed activities, and struggle with concentration. It is not only mood that changes; the overall level of mental energy shifts as well.

But even when we are not talking about a clinical disorder, seasonal changes can be subjectively perceived as a period of diminished psychological resources.

Some people may experience:
– increased fatigue;
– disrupted sleep patterns;
– reduced attention span;
– irritability;
– decreased motivation;
– emotional instability;
– a tendency to limit social contacts;
– a feeling that routine stressful situations have become harder to bear.

At first glance, all these changes may seem unrelated to criminal psychology. Yet it is precisely here that one of the central concepts for our topic emerges – self-regulation.

Self-regulation is the ability to manage one's own emotional reactions, impulses, and behavior in accordance with the situation and set goals. Simply put, it is the internal mechanism that allows us to stop ourselves in a moment of intense irritation, not to blurt out the first thing that comes to mind, not to strike someone during a conflict, and to think through the consequences of our actions.

When a person experiences chronic stress, sleep deprivation, emotional exhaustion, or a pronounced depressive state, their psychological resources may become depleted. This does not mean an automatic loss of behavioral control, but under certain circumstances, the capacity to manage strong emotions can indeed become less effective.

Criminal psychology is grounded in a simple yet fundamentally important idea: crime is rarely explained by a single cause.

It cannot be said that a person fell into depression and therefore committed a crime. Such logic would be not only scientifically untenable but also dangerous in terms of stigmatizing people with mental disorders.

It is far more accurate to view unlawful behavior as the result of an interaction between multiple factors – not "depression → crime," but rather a combination of personal vulnerability, adverse mental state, and a criminogenic situation.

Alcohol deserves particular attention. Sometimes a person experiencing anxiety, tension, or low mood attempts to alter their state on their own. Alcohol can be subjectively perceived as a means of relaxation and temporary escape from unpleasant feelings.

But the problem is that alongside emotional tension, alcohol can reduce the ability to control impulses, assess consequences, and restrain an already emerging aggressive reaction.

Particularly dangerous is the combination of several circumstances: a person is in an emotionally unstable state, a conflict arises between parties, alcohol is present, and the usual mechanisms of self-control prove insufficiently effective.

This creates a kind of chain: psychological distress → tension → alcohol → reduced control → conflict → impulsive reaction.

At the same time, alcohol cannot be regarded as the sole cause of a crime. Like a depressive state, it is merely one possible risk factor among others.

General statistics from Kazakhstan do not support the simple rule that "crime increases in autumn." On the contrary, in recent years, the total number of recorded criminal offenses has been declining. In 2023, the figure fell from 152,473 to 140,272, and in 2024, it decreased by another five percent, to 132,778.

At the same time, the structure of crime is changing. For example, in 2024, the number of murders decreased from 591 to 566, cases of grievous bodily harm – from 1,806 to 1,627, and robberies – from 2,030 to 1,551. Meanwhile, fraud saw a slight increase, and online fraud rose from 21,777 to 22,870 cases.

And this picture is particularly relevant to our topic. It shows that we cannot label autumn a "crime season" merely because some people may indeed experience a deterioration in their emotional state during this period.

Therefore, the scientifically sound conclusion at this point sounds different: seasonal changes in mental state can be an individual risk factor, but they do not, in themselves, explain crime trends on a national scale.

So, does autumn actually make people more dangerous?

Autumn is not a cause of crime, and Seasonal Affective Disorder does not turn a person into a criminal. However, the shortening of daylight and seasonal changes can affect sleep, mood, energy levels, and emotional regulation in some individuals. Contemporary research does consider light exposure and latitude as factors associated with the prevalence of Seasonal Affective Disorder.

And if one's internal resources for self-regulation prove insufficient, what becomes decisive is no longer the time of year, but rather what is happening inside the person, the circumstances surrounding them, and the ways in which they are accustomed to dealing with their own emotions and conflicts.

By Kazbek AKHMETOV,
Psychologist, Doctoral Candidate
at Al-Farabi Kazakh National University