From the conclusion of party congresses to the start of campaigning is but a single step. The upcoming elections will not only determine the composition of the first Kurultai but will also demonstrate how the country's new constitutional model functions in practice.

The past week marked the completion of one of the key stages in the preparations for the first-ever elections of deputies to the Kurultai in Kazakhstan's history, scheduled for August 23. All seven political parties accredited by the Central Election Commission to participate in the electoral campaign have held their congresses, approved their election platforms, and finalized their candidate lists.

Nearly every day was dedicated to the congress of one political party or another. Their candidate lists were successively approved by Respublica, Aq Jol, Auyil, the People's Party of Kazakhstan, the National Social Democratic Party, Baitaq, and Adilet. With this, the political associations have concluded the organizational phase of the campaign and have begun preparing to vie for voters' support.

In total, following the party congresses, 550 candidates have been nominated for 145 parliamentary mandates. This means that nearly four individuals are competing for each seat in the future composition of the Kurultai.

The most extensive list was submitted by the Adilet party, which included 186 candidates. Next is Respublica with 76 candidates, the People's Party of Kazakhstan with 72, Auyil with 69, Aq Jol with 63, Baitaq with 51, and the NSDP with 33 candidates.

The electoral campaign is taking place within a tight timeframe. Following the signing of the Decree on the election, the Central Election Commission established a schedule for all stages of the campaign. The nomination of party lists ended on July 13, candidate registration will continue until July 23, after which official pre-election campaigning will commence.

According to political expert Vitaliy Koltochnik, Vice-President of the Center for People's Diplomacy of Kazakhstan, the current election campaign is unfolding in a fundamentally different political reality.

– The center of political gravity has shifted toward parties, making them the sole institutions for shaping legislative power. Thus, parties face a new evolutionary challenge, and not all of them will survive it: the time has come for effective programs and sustainable systems, competition of ideas, and prominent figures, – says Vitaliy Koltochnik.

Continuing his analysis of the outcomes of the party congresses, he drew attention to another distinctive feature of the current campaign. In his assessment, the political landscape is gradually acquiring a clear specialization, so the main competition will unfold not among all election participants simultaneously, but within specific electoral niches.

– If everything proceeds without surprises, Respublica and Aq Jol will split the votes of entrepreneurs, the urban middle class, and fintech, forming something of a business cluster. Respublica is betting on young entrepreneurs, the digital economy, and the startup community. Aq Jol traditionally represents the interests of large domestic manufacturing and industrial business. The competition will be over the status of the "leading business voice" in the Kurultai, – the expert believes.

In his view, the current elections will not be the final point in the transformation of the party system.

– One cannot rule out further changes in the political party landscape following the elections, as well as the emergence of new parties with an eye toward local elections for maslikhats and akims, public councils, and other institutions of the Listening State, whose powers and influence will expand as decentralization continues, – emphasized Vitaliy Koltochnik.

Particular attention during the current campaign has been drawn to the Adilet party, which presented the most numerous candidate list.

Yerlan Karin, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, who is included in the party list, described participation in the elections as both a high honor and a great responsibility.

– For me, this is a great honor and at the same time an enormous responsibility. The Adilet party is entering the upcoming elections with the largest candidate list of those supporting the course of presidential reforms and ready to continue their implementation. Among the seven political parties participating in the elections, it is Adilet that has nominated the largest number of candidates – 186 people, – said Yerlan Karin.

According to him, a distinctive feature of the list is its broad representation of women, youth, and representatives of various professional communities. It includes 71 women, 15 members of the Presidential Youth Personnel Reserve, as well as candidates from all regions of the country.

– Another important point for me is that the list includes 31 former members of the National Kurultai. They are all well-known and respected figures in society. For five years, we worked together within this advisory and consultative body. It is a great honor for me to be on the same team as such colleagues. As you have already noticed, the participation of women and youth in the country's political life is visibly growing. New faces and new names are emerging. All of this fully aligns with the course of socio-political modernization being implemented in Kazakhstan, – emphasized Yerlan Karin.

The results of a study conducted by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS) under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan allow for an assessment of public sentiment ahead of the official campaign period. According to KazISS Director Zhandos Shaymardanov, citizens' interest in the upcoming vote may prove higher than in previous parliamentary elections.

– We can likely expect that, given the transition to a proportional system and considering the factors you mentioned, voter turnout may be higher than in previous parliamentary campaigns, – noted Zhandos Shaymardanov.

The study, conducted by DATAMetrics on behalf of KazISS from June 13 to July 2, covered eight thousand residents from all regions of the country, as well as Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent.

– The study showed a high level of support for the state's political course. For instance, 87.8 percent of respondents believe that Kazakhstan is moving in the right direction, – according to KazISS materials.

Seventy-five point six percent of survey participants expressed their readiness to take part in the elections. Of these, 44.2 percent stated they would definitely go to the polling stations, while another 31.4 percent responded that they would most likely participate in the voting.

Linara SAKTAGANOVA
Astana