Housing rental in Kazakhstan has risen in price by 17.1 percent over the year, while real per capita incomes grew by only 0.1 percent. Deputies of the Kurultai are calling for housing affordability to be assessed based on the real burden on the family budget.

Burikhan Nurmukhamedov, a deputy of the Kurultai of the Republic of Kazakhstan, has addressed Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov with a proposal to change the approach to assessing housing affordability. In his view, construction volumes, the number of square meters commissioned, and the number of mortgage loans issued do not in themselves show how affordable housing is for a particular family.

According to the deputy, the program of the "Adilet" party sets the goal of increasing the provision of citizens with quality and safe housing to 30 square meters per person by 2031. Among the measures envisaged for this are expanding access to mortgages, rent-to-own arrangements, protecting the rights of shared-construction participants, and renovating dilapidated housing.

At the same time, Burikhan Nurmukhamedov believes that the results of housing policy must be assessed taking into account the real financial capabilities of families.

– Today, the successes of housing policy are assessed primarily by construction volumes, the number of square meters commissioned, and the number of mortgage loans issued. However, the growth of these indicators does not yet mean an increase in housing affordability. If the cost of an apartment or rent grows faster than the population's incomes, a formal increase in construction and lending volumes does not solve the problem of housing affordability for a family, – the deputy emphasized.

As an example, Burikhan Nurmukhamedov cites the dynamics of prices and incomes. In August 2026, housing rent rose in price by 17.1 percent year-on-year, while real per capita incomes of the population grew by only 0.1 percent in the first quarter.

Another indicator the deputy draws attention to is the median wage. At the end of 2025, it stood at 317 thousand tenge, while the most common wage was 116 thousand tenge.

– Using only the average wage when assessing housing affordability can distort the real picture. The average indicator does not always reflect the income of a typical family, so for housing calculations it is advisable to focus on median income, which allows a more accurate view of the financial capabilities of most households, – noted Burikhan Nurmukhamedov.

The deputy's request also cites international experience in assessing housing affordability.

– International practice shows that housing affordability can be assessed not only through the number of square meters built or the volume of mortgage lending. In the United Kingdom, the median housing price and median earnings are compared; in European Union countries, the share of citizens whose housing costs exceed 40 percent of disposable income is taken into account. In Canada, the cost, quality, and sufficiency of living space are assessed, while in the United States the share of families spending more than 30 and 50 percent of their income on housing is considered separately. In Singapore and Ireland, the ratio of mortgage and debt burden to the borrower's income is taken into account, – the request states.

With these approaches in mind, Burikhan Nurmukhamedov proposes developing a unified System of Regional Housing Affordability Indicators. In his opinion, the calculations should be based on the median household income, while housing costs should be determined taking into account actual transactions, market lending conditions, and the full cost of living.

The proposed system should take into account five indicators. The first is the ratio of the market value of standard housing to the median annual family income. The second is the share of income a family spends on mortgages, rent, and utility costs. The third is the time required to save up for a down payment. The fourth is the share of families that meet banks' requirements and the conditions of state housing programs. The fifth is the share of households spending more than 30, 40, or 50 percent of their budget on housing.

The deputy believes that such data must be broken down by region, type of settlement, and category of family.

– These indicators should be applied in the development of subsidized mortgages, rent-to-own arrangements, housing certificates, and regional programs. At the same time, the result of state support must be assessed by how much it reduces the real burden on the family budget, and not only by the number of loans issued. It is precisely the financial affordability of housing for a family that should become one of the main criteria for the effectiveness of housing policy, – emphasized Burikhan Nurmukhamedov.

To practically test such an approach, the deputy noted the importance of assessing the feasibility of approving a unified Methodology for the system of regional housing affordability indicators and, within three months, presenting pilot calculations for all regions for 2024–2026.

Along with this, according to the deputy, it would be advisable to launch, starting in 2027, an open digital dashboard with quarterly publication of indicators and the algorithms for calculating them, so that the data are available to the expert community.

Another proposal concerns the conditions of state support. Burikhan Nurmukhamedov considers it necessary to study the possibility of linking subsidized mortgages, rent-to-own arrangements, and housing certificates to the actual level of housing affordability in a specific region.

In addition, the deputy considers it necessary to conduct an assessment of the existing housing programs and establish whether they have reduced the actual expenses of families for purchasing housing.

Linara SAKTAGANOVA
Astana